Insights
Cotality’s Research Director, Tim Lawless, says the property market has once again shown signs of momentum as sentiment improves.
"Following earlier rate cuts and easing inflationary pressures, we’ve seen housing values record another month of subtle growth in July, continuing the trend that began earlier in the year," Lawless said.
“Although the pace of growth remains contained, it’s clear that improving affordability expectations and an undersupply of listings are keeping values on a gentle upswing.”
The national Home Value Index rose by 0.6% in July, matching June’s performance. However, growth trends remain subdued compared to the peaks seen in 2023 and especially to the record surges during the pandemic.
Sales activity is also gradually lifting, with estimated sales over the past three months up 1.9% compared to the same period last year. Despite the lift, overall turnover remains below average, reflecting affordability challenges and cautious buyer behaviour.
From a supply perspective, total advertised stock levels remain tight, tracking -16.6% below the previous five-year average and -2.3% lower than a year ago, based on the four weeks ending July 28th.
“This low level of supply is continuing to create competitive conditions, particularly in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane, where inventory is exceptionally lean,” said Lawless.
Auction clearance rates have held relatively steady, with preliminary results in late July sitting in the low-to-mid 60% range, in line with the decade average.
Capital city markets are beginning to edge ahead of regional areas in monthly growth. Combined capitals rose 0.7% in July compared to 0.2% across regional Australia — marking the third consecutive month of stronger capital city performance.
However, over the quarter, regional markets still hold a slight edge with 1.4% growth versus 1.3% in the capitals.
Among the individual capital cities, Darwin led quarterly growth again at 3.7%, followed by Perth (+2.9%) and Brisbane (+2.7%). Darwin has now posted six consecutive months of value rises, placing its market firmly in a recovery phase after years of subdued conditions.
Annualised, the current quarterly growth trend suggests a 5.3% annual increase in national home values — broadly in line with the decade average.
"With another rate cut widely expected later this year and confidence returning, it’s likely we’ll see a modest reacceleration in value growth through the second half of 2025," Lawless said.
"Still, affordability pressures, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, will likely prevent the kind of rapid upswing we’ve seen in past cycles.”